New data released today provides some mixed signals on the state o the Australian economy.
Personal credit grew at a faster rate in August (1.3% v 0.7% in July), as did business credit (1.5%/0.4%), while housing credit expanded at a slower rate (1%/1.2%). And retail trade rose by 0.2% in the month, after falling by 1% in July.
Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan says the credit figures provide some "mixed messages" for the Reserve Bank.
"Consumers are showing a willingness to take on debt, as evident from the personal credit figures," he says.
"However, the RBA will be pleased by the moderation of housing to date. Housing credit is now expanding at a more moderate pace - with three-month annualised growth easing to 15.2% from a peak of 23.5% at the end of last year.
"On the investment outlook, it is positive that business credit surged 1.5% in August, thereby more than correcting for the soft 0.4% rise in July."
Similarly, retail trade is experiencing mixed results.
All states and territories except NSW, South Australia and Tasmania recorded growth in turnover in August, with Victoria (+1.4%) and Queensland (+1.1%) posting the strongest gains.
By sector, food retailing continued its moderate growth; department stores maintained their strong trend growth of the past six months, as did clothing and soft good retailing.
Conversely, household goods retailing has experienced weak trend growth since February; recreational goods retailing declined in July and August after experiencing no growth in June; and after registering strong trend growth from June to November 2003, hospitality and services has been in decline for three months.