The number of job ads in major metropolitan newspapers rose by 0.4% in seasonally adjusted terms in March, to an average of 21,062 a week, the third consecutive monthly increase.
Compared with March last year, the number of newspaper job ads was up by 6.3%, according to the latest ANZ job advertisements series.
Despite the increases recorded in recent months, the underlying trend remains downwards. In trend terms, the number of ads fell by 0.6% in March, after a 0.8% decline in February (revised from 1.2%), to be 2.5% lower than in March 2002.
The number of Internet job ads fell by 1.1% in March, to a seasonally adjusted average of 69,943 a week, following an 11.8% rise in February.
The high level of Internet job advertising reached in the previous month and the subsequent small decline means the number of online job ads in March was still 7.6% higher than a year earlier.
Combined, the total number of job ads fell by 0.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted average of 91,005 a week, following a 9.7% rise in February.
Compared with March last year, the total number of job ads in newspapers and on Internet sites
was up by 7.3%.
Senior economist Melanie Hay says the modest rise in the number of newspaper job ads last month suggests the start of war in Iraq has not materially affected employers' hiring intentions.
"Nevertheless, the ongoing weakness of the external environment has no doubt affected the number of positions advertised, particularly in the labour-intensive tourism industries, and this is likely to have offset areas of strength in the domestic economy," she says.
"This may in part explain the continued divergence in newspaper job advertisements growth between the states, with the underlying trend in New South Wales and Victoria still much weaker
than the smaller states and territories.
"Employment in the globally exposed business services sector, which includes the communications, finance, insurance, property and business services industries, remains soft and these industries are concentrated in the larger states."
Despite the past three months' increases, Hay says the average number of newspaper job ads in the March quarter was still 3.1% below that of the December quarter.
Internet job ads in the March quarter were also 0.6% lower than in the previous quarter - suggesting an easing in the pace of employment growth is likely in the months ahead, which could result in a modest rise in the unemployment rate.
"Nevertheless, recent employment growth as measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, has been much stronger than that suggested by the job advertisement series.
"Employment rose on average by 45,000 per month in the three months to February, compared with increases of 14,000 per month implied by the newspaper job advertisement series.
"This discrepancy can be partly attributed to the introduction by the ABS of a new labour force survey sample, based on the 2001 Census, and could continue to distort official estimates of employment growth until the new sample is fully rotated in later this year," she says.
The strength of employment growth in recent months, says Hay, means the government's forecast of 1.75% for 2002-03 looks to be "easily achievable", even in the unlikely event of significant falls in employment in each of the remaining months until June.
"The government is also well placed to meet its unemployment rate forecast of 6% in the June quarter, even if the participation rate remains around current elevated levels.
"This solid performance is in direct contrast to the weakness evident in the labour markets of most
other industrialised countries of the world and is a sound base from which to confront the
challenges that lie ahead," she says.
On a regional basis, Tasmania recorded the strongest increase in newspaper job ads in March, up 9.1%, the third consecutive monthly increase, while Western Australia (up 6% to the highest level since June 2000), South Australia (up 2%) and Queensland (up 0.2%) also recorded increases in the month.
Job ads fell by 9.3% in the Northern Territory and 4.6% in the ACT, while New South Wales (down 0.4%) and Victoria (down 1%) also recorded declines.